Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
